Joe Mixon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+114/-146).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to garner 5.1 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 14.0% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 95th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties grade out as the 8th-best group of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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