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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +135 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.8% pass rate.

Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.

THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accrue 3.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.

Joe Mixon has been a much bigger part of his team's pass attack this season (15.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (9.5%).

The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

Joe Mixon's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 89.2% to 71.8%.

The Miami Dolphins safeties rank as the 5th-best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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