Joe Mixon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-107/-123).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -109 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 68.6% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 4.7 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 88th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon's 21.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 16.0.
Joe Mixon's pass-catching performance gotten a boost this season, averaging 4.3 yards per game vs a mere 2.9 last season.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 8th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense metrics across the board.

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