Joe Mixon Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 30, 2022 12:05 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-120/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.8% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accrue 3.5 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 83rd percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has been a much bigger part of his team's pass attack this season (15.7% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (9.5%).
Joe Mixon's talent in picking up extra yardage have gotten better this year, totaling 11.77 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a mere 6.17 figure last year.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Joe Mixon has put up a mere -1.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 8th percentile among running backs.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Joe Mixon's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 89.2% to 71.8%.

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