Joe Mixon Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+403/-867).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -781 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -867.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing offenses have averaged 42.3 pass attempts per game versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.
Joe Mixon has been a big part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 12.8% this year, which ranks him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon's 20.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably higher this year than it was last year at 14.0.
Joe Mixon ranks in the 86th percentile among RBs as it relates to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a terrific 0.17 per game.
The Atlanta Falcons pass defense has conceded the 2nd-highest Completion% in football (91.8%) vs. running backs this year (91.8%).

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.
Joe Mixon has put up a paltry -2.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 11th percentile among RBs.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
Joe Mixon's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 89.2% to 80.8%.

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