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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Carries
Player Prop Week 7

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons

Joe Mixon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-111/-116).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -116.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to notch 18.7 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among RBs.

The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 5th-least run-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 33.9% run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.

THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game this week (71.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (83.9% in games he has played).

The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles profile as the 10th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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