Joe Mixon Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Carries

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-200/+145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 9th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 44.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 19.1 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.80 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a less important option in his offense's running game this week (68.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (81.0% in games he has played).
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best DE corps in football since the start of last season with their run defense.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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