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Joe Flacco

Joe Flacco TD Passes
Player Prop Week 7

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Joe Flacco TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+146/-152).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +156 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +146.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bengals may pass less in this week's game (and call more carries) because they be forced to utilize backup QB Joe Flacco.
  • A throwing game script is indicated by the Bengals being a -5.5-point underdog in this week's contest.
  • The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 66.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.9% red zone pass rate.
  • The passing offenses of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while ground volume may slide.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Given their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bengals are forecasted by the model to run only 62.4 total plays in this contest: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The Bengals have run the 3rd-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 50.3 plays per game.
  • In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the effect it has on all passing attack statistics), the offensive line of the Cincinnati Bengals ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year.
  • Joe Flacco's throwing precision has tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion% shrinking from 64.4% to 60.2%.
  • With an atrocious ratio of just 0.67 per game (10th percentile), Joe Flacco stands among the weakest TD throwers in the league this year.

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