Joe Flacco TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Joe Flacco

NFL · Player Props

Joe Flacco

QB · Cleveland Browns

TD Passes

Los Angeles Rams vs Cleveland Browns · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 3:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Flacco TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-240/+180).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line indicates a passing game script for the Browns, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Cleveland Browns to call the 4th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.8 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cleveland Browns have called the most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 66.5 plays per game.
The Cleveland Browns offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.
The Rams linebackers rank as the 4th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Browns to pass on 56.5% of their chances: the 9th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The model projects the Browns to be the 10th-least pass-centric team in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 54.5% red zone pass rate.
Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 4th-lowest level in the league against the Rams defense this year (64.5% Adjusted Completion%).
This year, the daunting Rams defense has conceded a mere 1.00 TDs through the air per game to opposing offenses: the 3rd-smallest rate in the NFL.

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