Joe Burrow Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Touchdowns

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+770/-852).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 62.9% red zone pass rate.
The projections expect Joe Burrow to attempt 35.8 passes this week, on balance: the 9th-most out of all QBs.
With a stellar 71.6% Adjusted Completion% (96th percentile) this year, Joe Burrow stands among the most accurate QBs in the league.
Joe Burrow has rushed for 0.25 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in football among quarterbacks (92nd percentile).

Favors Under

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Bengals, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.
The projections expect this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 120.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.
Joe Burrow isn't afraid to take off running near the end zone, accounting for 20.0% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year (88th percentile among quarterbacks).

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