Joe Burrow Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Touchdowns

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 2:33 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+850/-1050).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bengals to be the most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 64.0% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-focused team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.9% red zone pass rate.
Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.4 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The leading projections forecast Joe Burrow to attempt 38.4 passes in this week's game, on balance: the most out of all QBs.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in football (34.3 per game) since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Making up 20.0% of his offense's red zone rushing play calls this year (92nd percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Joe Burrow's mobility makes him a significant threat in Cincinnati's rushing attack near the end zone.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

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