Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 7:18 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-178/+160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -212 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -178.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 64.9% of their chances: the greatest clip on the slate this week.
At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense in football in the red zone (62.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Cincinnati Bengals.
In this contest, Joe Burrow is projected by the projection model to average the most pass attempts among all QBs with 39.2.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a glaring pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (36.4 per game) since the start of last season.
With a stellar 71.3% Adjusted Completion% (87th percentile) this year, Joe Burrow stands among the most on-target QBs in the league.

Favors Under

Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by the projection model to have only 125.5 offensive plays run: the 5th-fewest among all games this week.
The Cincinnati O-line grades out as the 10th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Since the start of last season, the fierce Jacksonville Jaguars defense has conceded a puny 68.1% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 10th-lowest rate in the league.
The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers profile as the 3rd-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.