Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 11

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Los Angeles Chargers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2024

Updated Nov 17, 2024 10:16 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-185/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -150 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -185.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 66.2% of their plays: the highest rate among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.8% red zone pass rate.
The pass attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (0-mph wind) being called for in this game, while run volume may fall-off.
The leading projections forecast Joe Burrow to attempt 38.7 passes in this week's game, on balance: the most out of all QBs.
With a fantastic 69.7% Adjusted Completion% (91st percentile) this year, Joe Burrow places among the most accurate quarterbacks in the league.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bengals to run the 5th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The 9th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Bengals this year (just 55.6 per game on average).
This year, the fierce Chargers defense has given up a puny 1.00 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 8th-lowest rate in the NFL.
When it comes to linebackers in defending receivers, Los Angeles's LB corps has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 4th-best in football.