Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

San Francisco 49ers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 68.1% of their opportunities: the greatest clip among all teams this week.
At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (62.7% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
The projections expect Joe Burrow to throw 38.1 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-most out of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bengals are forecasted by the model to run just 60.1 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
Joe Burrow's passing precision has declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 69.4% to 62.5%.
This year, the daunting San Francisco 49ers defense has allowed a paltry 1.00 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

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