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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

San Francisco 49ers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-105/-123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 68.1% of their opportunities: the greatest clip among all teams this week.

At the moment, the 3rd-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (62.7% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.

The projections expect Joe Burrow to throw 38.1 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-most out of all quarterbacks.

Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bengals are forecasted by the model to run just 60.1 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.

Joe Burrow's passing precision has declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 69.4% to 62.5%.

This year, the daunting San Francisco 49ers defense has allowed a paltry 1.00 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing QBs: the 5th-best rate in the NFL.

The San Francisco 49ers linebackers grade out as the 2nd-best collection of LBs in the league this year in defending receivers.

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