Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-170/+140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -165 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 2nd-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 60.3% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 9th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 65.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to attempt 40.2 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 5th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has yielded the 5th-least TDs through the air in football: 1.11 per game since the start of last season.

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