Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 29, 2022 11:40 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-220/+171).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -180 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -220.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 60.9% red zone pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
Joe Burrow has been among the top touchdown passers in the league since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 1.74 per game while ranking in the 76th percentile.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to attempt 32.4 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-least of all QBs.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Joe Burrow's throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 69.6% to 66.3%.

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