Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 19

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 19, 2022

Updated Jan 19, 2023 4:28 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-250/+186).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -204 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -250.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 68.6% pass rate.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Joe Burrow has attempted 38.9 throws per game this year, checking in at the 86th percentile among quarterbacks.
Joe Burrow has been among the most on-target QBs in the league this year with an impressive 69.6% Completion%, checking in at the 100th percentile.
Joe Burrow has been among the leading TD passers in the NFL this year, averaging a stellar 2.19 per game while ranking in the 97th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a massive 8.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line grades out as the 4th-worst in the league this year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has given up the 5th-least passing TDs in the NFL: 1.18 per game this year.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties profile as the 8th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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