Joe Burrow TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

TD Passes

Cincinnati Bengals vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+172/-225).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +172 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +172.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 59.9% red zone pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 133.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to attempt 40.9 passes this week, on average: the 5th-most of all quarterbacks.

Favors Under

The Kansas City Chiefs cornerbacks profile as the 6th-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (4th-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Kansas City Chiefs pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs just 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the fastest in football since the start of last season.
The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Cincinnati Bengals have utilized play action on a lowly 18.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.