Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+106/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Bengals, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.
Joe Burrow's 10.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season signifies an impressive gain in his rushing proficiency over last season's 5.0 rate.
Joe Burrow's rushing effectiveness has been refined this season, accumulating 4.32 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a measly 3.53 figure last season.
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 9th-most adjusted yards in football (124 per game) vs. the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Bengals as the 3rd-least run-heavy team among all teams this week with a 37.1% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 120.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
In this contest, Joe Burrow is forecasted by the model to notch the 9th-fewest rush attempts out of all QBs with 2.8.
As it relates to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Miami's group of LBs has been terrific this year, grading out as the 7th-best in the NFL.

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