Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 2:33 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 6.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 6.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 6.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a running game script.
Our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to call the 10th-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 64.4 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Bengals to be the least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 36.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect Joe Burrow to notch 2.5 carries this week, on balance: the 6th-fewest among all QBs.
With a very bad record of 6.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (24th percentile), Joe Burrow ranks among the worst running quarterbacks in the league since the start of last season.
Joe Burrow checks in as one of the weakest quarterbacks in football at grinding out extra running yardage, averaging just 0.70 yards-after-contact since the start of last season while grading out in the 16th percentile.
Since the start of last season, the porous Pittsburgh Steelers run defense has surrendered a colossal 4.12 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to the opposition's ground game: the 25th-highest rate in the league.