Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+115/-142).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -142.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to be a more integral piece of his team's rushing attack this week (12.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (4.4% in games he has played).
Joe Burrow has rushed for many more yards per game (16.0) this year than he did last year (6.0).
Joe Burrow's rushing efficiency has gotten better this year, averaging 4.80 yards-per-carry vs a mere 3.53 figure last year.
Joe Burrow has been among the leading QBs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a terrific 2.43 yards-after-contact this year while grading out in the 83rd percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 37.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.51 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.
The New Orleans Saints linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

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