Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 3, 2023 1:36 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 59.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to be a more important option in his team's run game this week (16.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (6.8% in games he has played).
Joe Burrow has run for significantly more yards per game (17.0) this season than he did last season (6.0).
Joe Burrow's ground effectiveness has been refined this year, averaging 5.16 yards-per-carry vs a mere 3.53 rate last year.
The Buffalo Bills safeties profile as the 31st-worst group of safeties in the league this year with their run defense.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 33.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 129.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to total 3.6 carries in this game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 4th-least yards in football (just 102 per game) against the Buffalo Bills defense this year.

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