Joe Burrow Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+110/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to be a more important option in his offense's running game this week (16.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (7.3% in games he has played).
Joe Burrow has rushed for quite a few more yards per game (19.0) this year than he did last year (6.0).
Joe Burrow's running efficiency has improved this season, accumulating 5.24 yards-per-carry compared to just 3.53 mark last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 9th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to call the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Cincinnati Bengals have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals have utilized some form of misdirection on a measly 38.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.