Joe Burrow Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Passing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 10:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 250.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 248.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 250.5 @ -125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 5.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 68.1% of their opportunities: the greatest clip among all teams this week.
The projections expect Joe Burrow to throw 38.1 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-most out of all quarterbacks.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.6 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 2nd-most in the NFL.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Bengals are forecasted by the model to run just 60.1 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
Joe Burrow's 214.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year reflects a significant diminishment in his passing skills over last year's 289.0 figure.
Joe Burrow's passing precision has declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 69.4% to 62.5%.
Joe Burrow's pass-game efficiency has diminished this year, averaging just 5.53 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 7.63 figure last year.
This year, the stout San Francisco 49ers defense has given up the 2nd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the league to opposing offenses: a feeble 6.5 yards.

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