Joe Burrow Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Passing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins · Week 4, 2022

Updated Sep 29, 2022 11:40 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Burrow Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 272.5 (-160/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 272.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 272.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-heavy team in football (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 63.8% pass rate.
Opposing offenses have averaged 36.8 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.
The Miami Dolphins pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency since the start of last season, conceding 7.90 yards-per-target: the 10th-most in the league.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Burrow to attempt 32.4 passes in this contest, on average: the 8th-least of all QBs.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Joe Burrow's throwing accuracy has worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 69.6% to 66.3%.

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