Joe Burrow Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Pass Attempts

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns · Week 16, 2024

Updated Dec 22, 2024 3:36 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-113/-121).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 37.5 @ -133 before it was bet down to 36.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 62.8% of their chances: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is forecasted by the predictive model to see 138.5 plays on offense called: the highest number on the slate this week.
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while rush volume may drop.
In this game, Joe Burrow is predicted by the model to average the 2nd-most pass attempts among all QBs with 40.4.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests an extreme running game script for the Bengals, who are a huge favorite by 10 points.
Opposing teams teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Cleveland Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 32.3 per game) this year.