Joe Burrow Interceptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Interceptions

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +130 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect Joe Burrow to attempt 35.8 passes this week, on balance: the 9th-most out of all QBs.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Miami's collection of safeties has been awful this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in football.

Favors Under

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Bengals, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.
The projections expect this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 120.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.
The Miami Dolphins have intercepted 1.03 targets per game this year, ranking as the 6th-best defense in the league by this metric.

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