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Joe Burrow

Joe Burrow Interceptions
Player Prop Week 16

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Burrow Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-117/-113).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -117.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

Joe Burrow has attempted 37.5 passes per game this year, checking in at the 83rd percentile among QBs.

Opposing offenses have averaged 37.9 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.

The New England Patriots pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks 2.52 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 8th-most sluggish in football since the start of last season.

The New England Patriots have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.14 seconds per snap.

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.

The New England Patriots have intercepted 0.85 passes per game this year, grading out as the 8th-best defense in football by this statistic.

The New England Patriots safeties profile as the 4th-best group of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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