Joe Burrow Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Completions

Miami Dolphins vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:42 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Bengals as the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect Joe Burrow to attempt 35.8 passes this week, on balance: the 9th-most out of all QBs.
With a stellar 71.6% Adjusted Completion% (96th percentile) this year, Joe Burrow stands among the most accurate QBs in the league.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest rate in the league vs. the Miami Dolphins defense since the start of last season (75.8% Adjusted Completion%).
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Miami's collection of safeties has been awful this year, profiling as the 5th-worst in football.

Favors Under

This week's line suggests an extreme running game script for the Bengals, who are a heavy favorite by 7 points.
The projections expect this game to have the fewest plays run among all games this week at 120.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.5 pass attempts per game versus the Dolphins defense this year: 8th-fewest in football.

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