Joe Burrow Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Completions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Denver Broncos · Week 17, 2024

Updated Dec 28, 2024 10:51 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 25.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.7% of their opportunities: the greatest rate on the slate this week.
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may go down.
In this week's game, Joe Burrow is projected by the projection model to average the most pass attempts out of all QBs with 40.9.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Broncos defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
With an outstanding 70.0% Adjusted Completion% (91st percentile) this year, Joe Burrow has been as one of the best precision passers in football.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a running game script.
At the moment, the 7th-slowest paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Bengals.
When talking about protecting the passer (and the significance it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Bengals grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year.
The Denver Broncos cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.