Joe Burrow Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Joe Burrow

NFL · Player Props

Joe Burrow

QB · Cincinnati Bengals

Completions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 4:01 AM EST

Analysis

Joe Burrow Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (+103/-137).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 24.5 @ -136 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ -137.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
Joe Burrow has attempted 39.0 throws per game this year, grading out in the 78th percentile among QBs.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
Joe Burrow has been among the most on-target QBs in the league this year with a stellar 70.2% Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the league since the start of last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals have used play action on a mere 18.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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