J.K. Dobbins Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

J.K. Dobbins

RB · Denver Broncos

Touchdowns

Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 4:33 PM EST

Analysis

J.K. Dobbins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+228/-291).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +207 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +228.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 60.4% red zone pass rate.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 5th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The projections expect J.K. Dobbins to be a much smaller part of his team's ground game near the goal line in this game (32.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (56.5% in games he has played).
J.K. Dobbins's ball-catching skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Catch% increasing from 77.6% to 100.0%.
This year, the daunting Kansas City Chiefs run defense has conceded a measly 0.67 rushing touchdowns per game to the opposing side: the 8th-lowest rate in football.

Favors Under

The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Broncos this year (a measly 53.3 per game on average).
J.K. Dobbins has been has not been looked to very often his team's offense near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which puts him in the 1st percentile when it comes to running backs.
The Denver Broncos offensive line grades out as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.
With a dreadful rate of just 0.00 per game through the air (1st percentile), J.K. Dobbins ranks as one of the worst receiving TD-scorers in the league when it comes to RBs this year.
J.K. Dobbins has rushed for 0.43 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL when it comes to RBs (80th percentile).