J.K. Dobbins Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

J.K. Dobbins

RB · Denver Broncos

Touchdowns

Arizona Cardinals vs Denver Broncos · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 4:02 PM EST

Analysis

J.K. Dobbins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+147/-150).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 6th-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (60.0% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Broncos.
The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 8th-fastest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 27.94 seconds per snap.
The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in no wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may suffer.
The leading projections forecast J.K. Dobbins to be a less important option in his team's ground game near the end zone this week (37.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (54.5% in games he has played).
J.K. Dobbins's possession skills have been refined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 77.6% to 100.0%.

Favors Under

The Broncos are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Denver Broncos to pass on 57.3% of their downs: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Arizona Cardinals, totaling the fewest attempts in football (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.
With a meager 0.0% Red Zone Target Rate (1st percentile) this year, J.K. Dobbins places as one of the pass-catching running backs with the least usage near the goal line in football.
As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the ramifications it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Denver Broncos profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year.