J.K. Dobbins Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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J.K. Dobbins

NFL · Player Props

J.K. Dobbins

RB · Denver Broncos

Touchdowns

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 3:52 PM EST

Analysis

J.K. Dobbins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+170/-174).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 61.8% red zone pass rate.
The model projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 130.0 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
J.K. Dobbins has put up a paltry -2.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 17th percentile when it comes to RBs.
J.K. Dobbins has not run for any touchdowns this year.

Favors Under

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Broncos are favored this week, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their usual game plan.
The 7th-fewest plays in the league have been run by the Broncos this year (only 53.5 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the Los Angeles Chargers, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in the NFL (just 29.0 per game) this year.
Out of all running backs, J.K. Dobbins ranks in the 81st percentile for red zone carries this year, taking on 46.2% of the usage in his offense's rushing attack near the end zone.
With a lousy 0.0% Red Zone Target Rate (1st percentile) this year, J.K. Dobbins places among the RB receiving threats with the least usage near the goal line in the NFL.

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