J.K. Dobbins Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

J.K. Dobbins

RB · Denver Broncos

Touchdowns

San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 3, 2026 7:32 PM EST

Analysis

J.K. Dobbins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+140/-168).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -168.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 4th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in the red zone (61.8% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Broncos.
As far as a defense's effect on pace, at 27.85 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Broncos to be the 6th-quickest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.
The 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (34.1 per game) since the start of last season.
The Denver offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

J.K. Dobbins has earned 50.0% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, placing him in the 86th percentile among running backs.
With a dismal 0.0% Red Zone Target% (1st percentile) this year, J.K. Dobbins rates among the pass-catching running backs with the smallest workloads near the goal line in the league.
In regards to air yards, J.K. Dobbins ranks in the lowly 17th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, averaging just -2.0 per game.
The receiving touchdown field reads "0" on the back of J.K. Dobbins's trading card since the start of last season.
J.K. Dobbins has rushed for 0.29 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest figures in the league among RBs (76th percentile).