J.K. Dobbins Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

My Account Log Out

reorder

We’re hiring: Junior AI Product & Automation Engineer — Freelance → Learn More

J.K. Dobbins

NFL · Player Props

J.K. Dobbins

RB · Denver Broncos

Touchdowns

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 14, 2026 8:12 PM EST

Analysis

J.K. Dobbins Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+203/-208).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Broncos to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 61.1% red zone pass rate.
The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Denver Broncos last year (a staggering 59.7 per game on average).
The predictive model expects J.K. Dobbins to be a much smaller piece of his team's run game near the end zone in this week's game (43.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been last year (60.6% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.
With a dismal 0.0% Red Zone Target Share (1st percentile) last year, J.K. Dobbins rates among the pass-catching RBs with the lowest volume near the end zone in football.
J.K. Dobbins has accrued a meager -3.0 air yards per game last year: a lowly 9th percentile when it comes to running backs.
The receiving TD column reads "0" on the back of J.K. Dobbins's trading card last year.
J.K. Dobbins has run for 0.36 TDs per game on the ground last year (on average), one of the highest figures in football when it comes to RBs (82nd percentile).

More J.K. Dobbins Props Data by WriteNow™

About WriteNow