J.K. Dobbins Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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J.K. Dobbins

NFL · Player Props

J.K. Dobbins

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

J.K. Dobbins Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 51.5 (-164/+125).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 56.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 51.5 @ +125.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens as the 4th-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 49.0% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
J.K. Dobbins has been given 41.0% of his team's carries this year, ranking in the 78th percentile among RBs.
J.K. Dobbins has averaged 60.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (83rd percentile).
J.K. Dobbins's running effectiveness (5.57 yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (92nd percentile among running backs).
The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive tackles profile as the worst DT corps in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run among all games this week at 124.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers defense has had the 7th-best efficiency against opposing run games this year, allowing just 4.27 yards-per-carry.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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