J.K. Dobbins Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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J.K. Dobbins

NFL · Player Props

J.K. Dobbins

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing TD

Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 1:01 AM UTC

Analysis

J.K. Dobbins Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+176/-254).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -246 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -254.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 6th-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 46.6% red zone run rate.
J.K. Dobbins has been given 46.2% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, putting him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
J.K. Dobbins has run for 0.40 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in football among RBs (84th percentile).
Opposing teams have run for the 5th-most TDs in the NFL (1.23 per game) against the Cleveland Browns defense this year.
The Cleveland Browns defensive tackles project as the 3rd-worst unit in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The Ravens are a 3-point underdog in this game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 124.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

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