J.K. Dobbins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

J.K. Dobbins

RB · Denver Broncos

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 3, 2026 5:12 PM EST

Analysis

J.K. Dobbins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-210/+160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -220 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 5th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
As far as a defense's effect on pace, at 27.85 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Broncos to be the 6th-quickest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.
The 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (34.1 per game) since the start of last season.
The Denver offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Since the start of last season, the feeble 49ers pass defense has allowed a whopping 85.4% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing running backs: the 8th-largest rate in football.

Favors Under

The 49ers linebackers rank as the 4th-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.