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J.K. Dobbins

J.K. Dobbins Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Chargers

J.K. Dobbins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -150.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

In this week's contest, J.K. Dobbins is predicted by the projection model to slot into the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.5 targets.

J.K. Dobbins has been heavily involved in his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 11.0% this year, which puts him in the 81st percentile among running backs.

J.K. Dobbins is positioned as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to running backs, completing an outstanding 92.3% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 76th percentile.

The Arizona Cardinals pass defense has allowed the highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (89.1%) to running backs since the start of last season (89.1%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 54.9% of their plays: the 4th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see just 124.0 total plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.

The Chargers have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 54.4 plays per game.

Opposing teams teams have been afraid to rely on the passing game too much against the Cardinals, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.2 per game) this year.

The Los Angeles Chargers offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all pass game stats across the board.

More J.K. Dobbins Player Props

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