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J.K. Dobbins

J.K. Dobbins Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Los Angeles Chargers

J.K. Dobbins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+160/-210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -185 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +160.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The 9th-highest number of plays in football have been called by the Los Angeles Chargers since the start of last season (a whopping 59.8 per game on average).

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while rush volume may suffer.

The projections expect J.K. Dobbins to garner 3.0 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 78th percentile when it comes to RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 52.9% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest clip among all teams this week.

The predictive model expects the Chargers to run the 8th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 62.6 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.

The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (78%) versus running backs since the start of last season (78.0%).

As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Pittsburgh's group of safeties has been great since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-best in the NFL.

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