J.K. Dobbins Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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J.K. Dobbins

NFL · Player Props

J.K. Dobbins

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 7:25 PM UTC

Analysis

J.K. Dobbins Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+110/-151).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -123 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -151.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
The Baltimore Ravens offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box versus opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Baltimore Ravens have utilized play action on 29.2% of their passing plays since the start of last season (8th-most in football), causing the defense to bite on the run and resulting in much higher passing production.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 6th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 53.9% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 5th-worst paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.87 seconds per snap.
The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 31.3 pass attempts per game against the Buffalo Bills defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in the NFL.
The Buffalo Bills pass defense has given up the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (74%) vs. RBs since the start of last season (74.0%).

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