J.K. Dobbins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

J.K. Dobbins

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 4, 2026 7:42 PM EST

Analysis

J.K. Dobbins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3-point disadvantage, the Broncos are underdogs this week, indicating more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual game plan.
The model projects the Denver Broncos to be the 6th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
As far as a defense's effect on pace, at 27.85 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Broncos to be the 6th-quickest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment.
The 49ers defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (34.1 per game) since the start of last season.
The Denver offensive line ranks as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a strong influence on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Favors Under

In regards to air yards, J.K. Dobbins ranks in the lowly 17th percentile among running backs since the start of last season, averaging just -2.0 per game.
With a lackluster 3.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (19th percentile) since the start of last season, J.K. Dobbins ranks as one of the bottom pass-catching running backs in the league.
With a poor 2.6 adjusted yards per target (15th percentile) since the start of last season, J.K. Dobbins rates as one of the worst RBs in the pass game in the league.
The 49ers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing RBs have gotten into space, giving up an average of 4.53 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 7th-fewest in the league.
The 49ers linebackers rank as the 4th-best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.