J.K. Dobbins Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

J.K. Dobbins

RB · Denver Broncos

Receiving Yards

Kansas City Chiefs vs Denver Broncos · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 14, 2026 8:12 PM EST

Analysis

J.K. Dobbins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-102/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Broncos to be the 4th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the 2nd-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 130.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Denver Broncos last year (a staggering 59.7 per game on average).
J.K. Dobbins has been on the field for 47.4% of his team's snaps last year, placing him in the 77th percentile among RBs.
When it comes to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense stats), the offensive line of the Broncos profiles as the 4th-best in football last year.

Favors Under

Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) usually correlate with decreased passing effectiveness, lower air volume, and higher ground volume.
J.K. Dobbins has accrued a meager -3.0 air yards per game last year: a lowly 9th percentile when it comes to running backs.
With a poor 3.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (18th percentile) last year, J.K. Dobbins has been among the weakest pass-catching RBs in the league.