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J.K. Dobbins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-117/-112).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 15.5 @ -118 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -117.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The projections expect this game to have the 5th-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 130.2 plays, given the play styles of each team and game dynamics.The forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.Opposing offenses have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game versus the Saints defense this year: 5th-most in football.In this week's game, J.K. Dobbins is expected by the projection model to place in the 83rd percentile when it comes to RBs with 3.4 targets.J.K. Dobbins has been an integral part of his team's offense, garnering a Target Share of 10.3% this year, which places him in the 80th percentile among running backs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 7.5-point advantage, the Chargers are heavily favored in this week's contest, suggesting much more of an emphasis on running than their standard game plan.Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 52.5% of their chances: the 4th-lowest clip among all teams this week.The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 10th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 55.7 plays per game.When it comes to pass-blocking (and the importance it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Chargers profiles as the 5th-worst in football this year.J.K. Dobbins is positioned as one of the least effective pass-catchers in the NFL when it comes to RBs, averaging a lowly 4.80 adjusted yards-per-target this year while ranking in the 23rd percentile.
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