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J.K. Dobbins Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-109/-120).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 12.5 @ -120.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Los Angeles Chargers may take to the air less in this week's game (and call more carries) given that they be rolling out backup QB Taylor Heinicke.The Chargers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, which points towards a passing game script.The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may drop.J.K. Dobbins has been on the field for 53.0% of his offense's snaps since the start of last season, putting him in the 87th percentile among running backs.Our trusted projections expect J.K. Dobbins to total 3.4 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers as the 6th-least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 3rd-lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 124.0 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.Opposing offenses teams have been afraid to lean on the pass against the Chiefs, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.6 per game) since the start of last season.J.K. Dobbins comes in as one of the least effective receivers in the NFL among RBs, averaging a measly 1.82 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 5th percentile.With a weak 3.71 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (14th percentile) this year, J.K. Dobbins ranks as one of the best pass-game running backs in football in space.
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