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J.K. Dobbins Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-152/+116).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ +116.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Chargers to run on 45.1% of their plays: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.The predictive model expects J.K. Dobbins to garner 18.5 carries in this week's game, on balance, ranking him in the 98th percentile when it comes to running backs.Out of all running backs, J.K. Dobbins grades out in the 85th percentile for carries this year, making up 57.7% of the workload in his offense's run game.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is predicted by the projection model to see just 124.0 total plays run: the lowest number out of all the games this week.The Chargers have called the 5th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 54.4 plays per game.The forecast calls for 2-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and lower rush volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.The Cardinals safeties rank as the 3rd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in regard to stopping the run.
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