Jimmy Garoppolo Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

NFL · Player Props

Jimmy Garoppolo

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Rushing Yards

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Jimmy Garoppolo Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-102/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -122 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The 49ers are a heavy 7.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 8th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 45.7% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has produced the worst efficiency against opposing rushing attacks this year, surrendering 6.01 yards-per-carry.
The Los Angeles Chargers defensive ends project as the 4th-worst unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.9 plays per game.
Jimmy Garoppolo has generated a mere 2.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the smallest figures in the league among quarterbacks (11th percentile).
Jimmy Garoppolo's rushing effectiveness (1.03 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the league this year (6th percentile among quarterbacks).
The San Francisco 49ers have gone up against a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.