Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Jimmy Garoppolo

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Passing Yards

Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 26, 2022 12:20 AM EST

Analysis

Jimmy Garoppolo Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 236.5 (+102/-133).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 235.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 236.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive effect on all air attack stats across the board.
Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the most accurate QBs in the league since the start of last season with a terrific 68.2% Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.
Jimmy Garoppolo has been among the best per-play QBs in football since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 8.43 yards-per-target while ranking in the 100th percentile.
The Denver Broncos defense has been particularly weak when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 6.06 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-most in football.
The Denver Broncos defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing QBs 2.53 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 6th-slowest in football since the start of last season.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers to be the 5th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 116.4 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 61.5 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jimmy Garoppolo to attempt 28.9 passes in this game, on average: the 4th-least of all quarterbacks.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in football.