Jimmy Garoppolo Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jimmy Garoppolo

NFL · Player Props

Jimmy Garoppolo

QB · San Francisco 49ers

Completions

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:41 PM EST

Analysis

Jimmy Garoppolo Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 22.5 (-129/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 22.5 @ +100 before it was bet down to 22.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run among all games this week at 129.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 43.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: most in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers O-line ranks as the 10th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in the league vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year (74.9%).
The San Francisco 49ers have faced a stacked the box on 18.6% of their plays since the start of last season, 8th-most in the league. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the San Francisco 49ers as the 7th-least pass-heavy team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 58.3% pass rate.
The San Francisco 49ers have run the 9th-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 55.8 plays per game.
The forecast calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Jimmy Garoppolo's passing accuracy has declined this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 68.2% to 63.2%.
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers project as the 9th-best unit in the league this year in covering receivers.

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